Although millions of COVID-19 booster injections are projected to be delivered in the United States in the coming months, businesses like Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc. are unlikely to announce a financial bonanza this year.
Wall Street analysts have already included in the extra dosage agreements that both firms struck with the US government in June and July into their yearly consensus. (The United States is purchasing an extra 200 million doses from Moderna MRNA, +1.54 percent and Pfizer PFE, +0.07%, which developed the vaccine alongside BioNTech SE BNTX, -0.61 percent.)
According to a FactSet consensus, Pfizer expects to make $9.6 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in the third quarter and $11.4 billion in the fourth quarter, for a total of $32.8 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021.
For the year, sales forecasts for Moderna's shot are significantly lower. They are anticipated to total $20.0 billion in 2021, with third-quarter revenues of $6.9 billion and fourth-quarter revenues of $7.1 billion.
The initial series of injections as well as the booster dosages are included in the sales numbers.
COVID-19 boosters were always on the table, according to Wall Street experts.
According to Wall Street, there is more than enough vaccine to raise the number of people in the United States who will be eligible for a third dose if and when it is authorized.
The FDA approved boosters for persons 65 and older, younger adults with underlying health problems, and people who work in professions where they are at high risk of developing COVID late Wednesday.
“Boosting will ultimately be offered to all who want it, in part, to avoid inequalities between the 1.1 [million] people who have already received a booster (and more people continue to seek boosters out there) and those who may want one but cannot get one,” Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said Sept. 15.
Despite the fact that the Biden administration has thrown its support behind a booster program for all adults in the United States, and experts are debating the need for such a program right now, Wall Street has tended to be more practical in its thinking.
Analysts have mainly seen COVID-19 booster injections as a foregone conclusion, with the proviso that they will be confined to specific parts of the population, such as the elderly, those who work in frontline professions, and those who have pre-existing illnesses that make them more susceptible to illness.
The FDA committee made the same argument last week, as did members of a CDC advisory group a few weeks ago.
The FDA's judgment on the BioNTech/Pfizer booster is expected soon, and the regulatory process is already in motion. The FDA advisory group suggested booster shots for the elderly and those at high risk of severe illness on Friday, and the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to examine who should get a booster shot.
What about market share?
If there's one thing investors should focus on instead, it's the sequence in which booster injections are allowed or authorized.
In our non-pandemic existence, the struggle for market share looks a lot like what occurs with drugs. According to SVB Leerink analysts, because Pfizer is first in line, it is more probable that the firm will become the main provider of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. Vaccine markets are frequently dominated by one or two companies.
“Pfizer seems set to now dominate the first generation of COVID boosting, which will make it that much harder for its existing competitors to gain share, and for new competitors to enter the market,” they wrote in a note to investors on Saturday.
Pfizer's stock has risen 20.3 percent this year, while Moderna's stock has risen 320.8 percent. In 2021, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.95 percent is up 15.9%.